Playoff Predictions
This piece is hardly my content as HullCity ended up writing the entire content piece himself as well, so you’re pretty much going to get 2 whole content pieces in 1, but only he wrote the “Lane to watch” section.
Special thanks to HullCity for his writing as well as Lemon, USDanny, Rice Boi, ColonelSquid, Matieu, Brightside, Princess, and Iceyeti for their predictions.
Sasquatch (1) vs Bestpinoza (17)
Initial Thoughts
Trav2s:
This is probably the most well rounded team in the playoffs against the most top heavy team left in the playoffs. Although Sasquatch can definitely carry his team when needed, /apex will need to be the best player in the server in order for his team to take it.
HullCity:
This matchup is the other series that is technically still a round of 16 matchup; however I expect this series to be even more unappealing than the other round of 16 matchup. Despite putting up a strong end of the season performance going 4–0 in the final two weeks, the bestpinoza team has yet to face a truly challenging opponent. Their toughest matchup probably coming against the 12th seeded Captain Pepega stack who became one of the two teams to be upset in the round of 32. To make matters worse they are going up against the outright number one regular season seed from Est-Sun in Sasquatch. I expect this to be smooth sailing for the Sasquatch stack.
HullCity’s Lane to Watch
The lane to watch for me this series is the safelane of Sasquatch and ExO vs. Bestpinoza and Jett. I believe this to just be a bad matchup for bestpinoza who is a lower mmr player laning as a core vs one of the highest mmr position one players in the division. Granted this team has been laning this way the entire season and is potentially aware of this weakness and turned it into a strength for them. However, I fear that Sasquatch will be able to do a little too well in this lane and take over the series.
X-Factors
Sasquatch Team: Coahre
Gio plays a big part of the midgame for the Bestpinoza team as /apex is generally stuck farming on some hard lategame carry and Bestpinoza gets out mmr’d in the offlane. If Coahre can shut down the midlaner, it could spell doom for the Bestpinoza team as they may just run out of space on the map in the midgame.
Bestpinoza Team: Jett
Despite spending most of the last part here talking about how important Gio is to their team, Jett plays an equally important role as he can help his low mmr offlaner as he will be stuck laning against a mid 6k+divine support safelane. Jett also will most likely soak up some bans for his team as he’s had several comfort heroes throughout the season.
HullCity:
The X-factor in this series for me is Hammingzyy. The light at the end of the tunnel this season for the bestpinoza stack has been Apex’s ability to takeover the game as the position one and help lead his team to victory. If Hammingzyy aka Mike(a member of last season’s championship stack) is able to draw or even win the lane and his team is able to maintain proper vision control of Apex’s jungle then this series should be a walk in the park for the Sasquatch stack.
Prediction
Trav2s: 2–1 Sasquatch
Lemon: 2–1 Sasquatch
USDanny: 2–0 Sasquatch
Rice Boi: 2–0 Sasquatch
ColonelSquid: 2–0 Sasquatch
MrBrightside: 2–0 Sasquatch
Matieu: 2–0 Sasquatch
Iceyeti: 2–0 Sasquatch
Princess: 2–0 Sasquatch
HullCity: 2–0 Sasquatch
Despite liking all of the players on bestpinoza’s team, this league and it’s champion is not determined by charm and general good naturedness, but rather who can play the best dota so I predict Sasquatch to take this series in little time.
-HullCity
ColonelSquid (8) vs DrSteel (9)
Initial Thoughts
Trav2s:
Despite this being technically a RO16 game, this is one of the more exciting games this week of games in my opinion. Featuring a bunch of EST-SUN regulars as well as one of the season 18 runback teams (DrSteel) it will be a hotly contested matchup. These teams did play to a 1–1 draw week 1, but the DrSteel team has been on a tear recently, going a perfect 6–0 in their last 3 weeks.
Hullcity:
It’s always tough to write about teams who have the same record, played each other in week 1 which resulted in a 1–1 score, and one of the teams is your own. In terms of hype, this matchup is probably one of the least exciting of the ones played this week since it is technically a round of 16 playoff match since Wizard of Chaos (ColonelSquid’s round of 32 opponent) had some scheduling issues but nonetheless let’s get into what I think about this series(in as unbiased a form as I can).
HullCity’s Lane to Watch
The lane to watch for this series is for sure the Jah and wetpaint vs. HullCity and Snow lane. Without rehashing too heavily what has already been said about Jah I believe this lane is crucial for my team as well. Almost everything on our team runs through me and oftentimes our success is dependent on how well of a game I am able to draft for both myself and snow. Considering the aggro playstyle of both myself and Jah I expect this lane to be a bloodbath.
Trav2s’ X-Factors
ColonelSquid Team: Spacedude360000
Despite there being quite a gap between the 4 players for each team, Spacedude has had just as impressive of season thus far and has shown that he can be one of, if not the most, impactful players on his team this season. Additionally, the mid matchup between Camelfarmer and ColonelSquid should be extremely close and a rotation from either support or a missed rotation could decide the lane.
DrSteel Team: Snow
A lot of the ColonelSquid team’s success this season has come off the back of Jah, can the the Rd2l newcomer slow down the immortal safelaner? In the 1st meeting this season he had a very good showing in their game 2 win, but a quite poor game 1 which saw them lose despite holding a 30k networth advantage.
HullCity:
For me, the clear x-factor in this series has to be Jah. Jah has been a staple for this Squid team since switching back to his slightly more comfortable role of the one position with Squid after week 1. What is particularly interesting about the timing of this matchup is that it’s coming post 7.27b which saw two of Jah’s most terrifying heroes, Ursa and Nature’s Prophet, see some pretty substantial nerfs. Of course Jah is not the only immortal player on his team as new immortal player ColonelSquid can use this opportunity in rd2l playoffs to really strut his stuff and prove all those hard hours have really payed off, but if Jah is not able to show up in a manner similar to what he has in series past without some of his more signature heroes I foresee this team struggling.
Predictions
Trav2s: 0–2 DrSteel
Lemon: 2–1 ColonelSquid
USDanny: 1–2 DrSteel
Rice Boi: 0–2 DrSteel
ColonelSquid: 2–0 ColonelSquid
MrBrightside: 2–1 ColonelSquid
Matieu: 2–1 ColonelSquid
Iceyeti: 2–0 ColonelSquid
Princess: 1–2 DrSteel
HullCity: 0–2 DrSteel
While it is slightly biased since it’s my team, I still believe our current form to be better than squid’s having gone 6–0 in our last three series with all of the games being won in a rather convincing fashion. While I do anticipate Squid’s team being a larger challenge than the previous teams(so much so that I’m even considering banning pango) I still predict us coming out on top.
-HullCity
Matieu (4) vs Fume (5)
Initial Thoughts
Trav2s:
This is a very high mmr match, featuring 5 total immortals. I think the tricore for the Matieu stack is stronger than the Fume stack, but the Fume stack has many tricks up their sleeves and can pull out draft wins quite often. Drafting against the Fume stack is hard as well as they soak up a lot of target bans allowing Fume to play very strong carries this patch.
HullCity:
At the start of the season I was blessed to catch on stream an argument between the two irl friends of this stack, Fume and Bitterra, in which Bitterra made clear his annoyance with Fume’s attitude on his smurf and lack of empathy among other things. Unfortunately I am not a twitch affiliate and so the VOD has since been deleted, truly you don’t know what you missed for those of you who didn’t get to see it. At this point I was seriously concerned about the future of this team and marked them down as a guaranteed disband; however, they proved Est-Sun and me wrong and turned their season around in a big way, finishing as the 5th seed of the regular season. There’s not much to say about Mat’s team, yet again the head admin has rigged the league and gotten himself a 3 immortal team centered around another EU sandbagged midlaner.
HullCity’s Lane to Watch
The lane to watch is definitely the midlane matchup of Bitterra vs. Harbinger. Both players are pronounced Lone Druid enthusiasts so it will be interesting to see who gets first pick in this series and if Druid will be banned accordingly. I believe that all 3 cores of Matieu’s team function like a well-oiled machine and work off of each other well so if Harbinger’s game is slowed down the team’s ability to get shit done won’t be too stinted. However, Bitterra is a big part of his team’s success so if he is faltered a bit by this tough mid opponent I wonder if Fume’s team could run into trouble.
X-Factor
Matieu Team: Bloo
The 4 position has had a ridiculous season thus far, especially considering his draft mmr was in the low Legend area. Filski has shown the ability time and time again this season to be capable of solo laning, allowing his 4 player to play roaming heroes such as Earth Spirit and Earthshaker. If the trend continues and he’s on another roaming hero, he’ll need to make sure Filski has a fine time laning against the Fume lane as well as rotating to help his midlaner who might end up getting cheesed by a Bitterra last pick.
Fume Team: Bitterra
Whenever you’re a player able to pull out a last pick cheese hero such as broodmother or tinker in RD2L you will always be considered a wildcard in my eyes. Not to call him a 1 trick pony that can only succeed with last pick as he managed to get himself to 6k during the season. Should he get last pick, can he pick himself up a 1v5 type hero that will win the game for his team off the draft? If he’s stuck with 1st pick can he still shut down Harbinger and pressure Matieu’s farm as his safelaner is farming?
HullCity:
The X-factor for this series is without a doubt Bitterra. Bitterra is one of the key figures in the mid game for this Fume stack and that can be largely attributed in my opinion to his unpredictable play, hero picks, and item builds including some gems such as mid Enigma. If Bitterra is able to set himself up for success and get over the extreme sadness that he must be feeling after his favorite hero got gutted, then it should be looking good for the Simpin fellas.
Prediction
Trav2s: 2–1 Matieu
Lemon: 1–2 Fume
USDanny: 2–0 Matieu
Rice Boi: 0–2 Fume
ColonelSquid: 1–2 Fume
MrBrightside: 2–0 Matieu
Matieu: 2–0 Matieu
Iceyeti: 2–1 Matieu
Princess: 1–2 Fume
HullCity: 2–1 Matieu
I expect this to be the tightest matchup this week and each game will be a nail biter. With that being said the admin rigging is back at it again and I think Matieu takes this as the higher seed.
-HullCity
Lala (3) vs Logical (6)
Initial Thoughts
Trav2s:
On paper I think this matchup is a lot more even than what most people think. I think a lot of people consider the Logical team the favorite to win EST-SUN this season, but I think the Lala team can take this series if they play with tempo. The Logical stack can run into trouble midgame as Logical generally plays very late game carries as well as going quite greedy item builds. If Lala team can exploit that and play with enough tempo to choke the map out for Logical then I think they have a chance to move on.
HullCity:
I have yet to encounter either of these teams this season with the exception of scrimming LaLa once (a scrim that I won 2–0 btw :peepoglad:) and therefore don’t know a ton about these two teams. However, I do believe this series to be the most hype one of the week as two titans of EST-Sun face off against each other. I’ve been saying it since the start of the season but I truly believe that the team logical has around him this season is the best he has had to date(in previous iterations of logical teams it has been up to logical to 1 v 9).
HullCity’s Lane to Watch
Of course the lane to watch in this series has to be the combo of Smack and Al Clapone vs. EmperorofAsia and Luchs. The LaLa team has often in the past looked towards EmperorofAsia to become a second core for their team and relieve LaLa of some of that load. If Smack is able to do what he has been doing for the majority of this season, shutting down enemy safelaners, then I expect the recently dipping in quality LaLa stack to struggle.
X-Factor
Lala Team: Forn
As I talked about before, Logical generally plays a very greedy style of 1 and if he can get slowed down enough in laning phase that can help put pressure on Logical if Forn’s other lanes end up not coming out of laning well. Even just putting this lane in a vacuum and not taking into account the Logical team’s tendencies and play style, Forn is still up against the highest mmr player for the other team which is always a tough situation to be in. If Forn can come out of lane in a good spot it will be up to him and Lala to up the tempo to start restricting the map for the Logical stack. Additionally, Forn has swapped heroes with his midlaner a few times most likely in order to dodge matchups, which is always a positive to have as a drafter.
Logical Team: Fury
Continuing with my trend that I’ve been writing about, this all comes down to tempo. If Fury can come out of lane in a good spot he can slow down the Lala team if they choose to play a high tempo lineup or even create tempo along with Smack allowing Logical to farm in the midgame. Much like Forn, Fury is stuck laning against the highest mmr player on the opposing team. HullCity:
This series x-factor is Logical’s midlaner Fury. Finally being able to draft himself a truly value midlaner has allowed Logical to move to the safelane for rd2l as well as enabling Fury to do his thing. With this unspoken trust between the two of them, Fury has truly been able to pop off this season (playing so well in fact that he was able to beat my legendary pugna in a pub). If Fury is able to hinder LaLa’s play just enough to ensure that Logical is able to carry the game then the Logical stack should be in the driver’s seat.
Prediction
Trav2s: 1–2 Logical
Lemon: 0–2 Logical
USDanny: 0–2 Logical
Rice Boi: 0–2 Logical
ColonelSquid: 0–2 Logical
MrBrightside: 1–2 Logical
Matieu: 2–1 Lala
Iceyeti: 0–2 Logical
Princess: 0–2 Logical
HullCity: 1–2 Logical
Like the Matieu vs Fume series I fully expect this one to come down to the final game as well with each game being a true nail biter. Despite all of this I believe the pieces in place around logical are the best they’ve ever been and it will inevitably be enough produce this minor upset.
-HullCity
Trav2s (2) vs Dark (7)
Initial Thoughts
Trav2s:
My thoughts on this series is what I thought going into last week against the Econ stack. This team is pretty much the same as the Econ stack, but with better high end talent and worse “middle” tier talent. Should be a fun series.
HullCity:
My thoughts on this series are pretty limited considering I have not watched nor played against the Trav2s stack yet this season, whereas I have played against the Dark team. From what I do know about this Dark team, I do worry that most games it feels like Dark has to put his team entirely on his back with his other high mmr player being SSD his position 5, whereas all three cores provide a well-rounded team approach. SSD’s Jakiro is still something to be terrified of though make no mistake.
Lane to Watch
Despite the clear talents of Mirage the lane to watch for me this series is the safelane of Dark and SSD vs. Ghost and Trav2s. As previously mentioned all of the Dark’s team success runs through him and his ability to lane well in the newly adapted safelane with his partner in crime SSD. This lane will be particularly interesting for the Trav2s stack as well considering Travis’ incredible ability to feed relentlessly and call it space. Will Dark be able to take advantage of the constant poor positioning of Travis and the failure of Ghost to make up for this to post another big 20 plus kill game?
editor note: big fat bully ^
X-Factor
Trav2s Team: Trav2s
Yes, I am choosing myself. I think my performance is pretty up and down throughout my rd2l career, or even dota career. If I can not chain feed on some hero I have 50+ games on, like my game 2 against the Econ stack last week, it will go a long way to helping my team win. I think my laning this season with ghost has been questionable to say the least and my team is MUCH better when ghost has a game. Laning against Double King and Miyushi last week should hopefully help us this week against Dark and SSD, but it will be rough if I lane like a moron.
Dark Team: Verve
The newest member of the Dark team has played a big role in their team as he generally plays very brawly type offlaners, presumably to just make space around the map for Dark who has been playing very hard carries this season. He’ll play an integral part in their success again this week if he can manage to shut down the safelane from the Trav2s team in lane as it will put a ton of pressure on Mirage to make plays across the map.
HullCity:
The X-factor this series is always going to be Mirage. Mirage has been putting up insane KDA’s every single game this season and putting a large portion of the travis stack on his back. I expect that to continue this series with Mirage laning against the currently ranked Legend 3 Poncho. As long as Poncho’s DK is banned I expect Mirage to be able to cleanly run through this series on some truly fun heroes.
Prediction
Trav2s: 2–0 Trav2s
Lemon: 2–1 Trav2s
USDanny: 2–1 Trav2s
Rice Boi: 0–2 Dark
ColonelSquid: 2–1 Trav2s
MrBrightside: 2–1 Trav2s
Matieu: 1–2 Dark
Iceyeti: 1–2 Dark
Princess: 1–2 Dark
HullCity: 2–0 Trav2s
For me this is the least exciting game of the TOP 5 SEEDS of EST-Sun and despite the Dark team being a good stack I expect the Trav2s stack to sail away with this one and redeem the failure of the dream stack Small Dicks, Big Hearts.
-HullCity
For those of you that managed to get through this monstrosity of a text wall thanks for reading and thanks for the continued support throughout the season.
