RBL 2025 Predictions

Beijing

Bounceback season:
SP Yozo Kimura — Should be better than a 1.0 WAR pitcher. Had the highest BABIP of Beijing starters last season and a ERA+ of just 81.
2B Armando Arredondo — I don’t think he’s going to light the world up, but no way he puts in back to back negative WAR seasons.

Return to earth seasons:
SP Tony Napoleo — No way this man puts up back to back unicorn seasons. WILL get lit up and hover at most 90 ERA+ area with a BABIP closer to .300.
LF Kazuhito Furukawa — 4.9 WAR with 168 OPS+ is probably a bit inflated. Most likely will fall down to a ~2.5–3.5 WAR area.

Prediction:
~65 wins, Miss playoffs

Boston

Bounceback season:
Homicide — Hopefully can recover from his elbow injury. Will be back closer to all-star break though.
Joe Dauphin — Has almost always had a disappointing season after a 4+ WAR season, last year his hitting numbers were very poor. Expecting to see a 3+ WAR season.
William Blumberg — Doesn’t strike me as a negative WAR player. 70 catching ability with an elite arm and not awful contact numbers. No way he goes negative again.

Return to earth season:
Kazumasa Kashima — Unfortunately “Jet” is cooked. Still an average-above average bullpen arm, but won’t be putting up any ridiculous numbers anymore.
Fuck this dumb team, end its reign :)

Prediction:
~90 Wins, Runner Up

Cucklegar

Bounceback season:
3B Kendrick Ackland — Expect to see his numbers post trade to Castlegar rather his numbers pretrade in Suwon this season.
Lu-Po-Teh Bing — Strictly here because he spent 4/5 of last season on IR.
RP Alfonso Torres — Not sure how an extreme groundball pitcher goes from .4 HR/9 to 1.5 HR/9 in 1 season, but here we are. No way he does that again, right?
RP Josh Bayi — Read above. Shockingly similar, but .8 HR/9->1.6 HR/9.

Return to earth season:
RF Alex De Leon — Not hitting 6+ WAR this season. Fight me Alex.
2B Tamaichi Hayashi — Will drop back down to ~4 WAR area, still elite 2B.

Players to look out for:
C Danny Cortina — Gold glove level defense with an above average bat at catcher. Will be an All-Star this season.

Prediction:
~80 Wins, Lose to Boston in Conference Finals

Halifax

Bounceback season:
SP Matt Camp — Elite pitcher still, put up a 3.6 WAR season last year, will be 4+ this season
SP Danny Lara — Looks to me like a 1.5–2.5 WAR area guy. Should be a solid mid rotation guy after he gets back from his injury in 2 weeks.
3B Juan Rico — Put up career low numbers last season in OBP, SLG, OPS, OPS+. Should be back to his averages.

Return to earth season:
DH Carlos Hernandez — Will be a 40+ dinger guy this season, but won’t hit 50+ again.

Players to look out for:
CF Jose Lara — I’m Cooming. Going to eclipse 3.5 WAR in his rookie year.

Prediction:
~75 Wins, 1st round exit.

Isle of Man

Bounceback season:
SS Ben Sullivan — Aging sure, but think he’ll still bounceback after a career low year last season.
2B Elijah Larry — I think he’s going to hit a 2nd gear this season and put in a monster year. Not really a bounceback considering last season was his best so far, but think he’s an elite player.
Hisashi Inaba — Despite being pretty cooked, still think he’s a solid guy vs RHP and should bounce back from a miserable -1.1 WAR season.

Return to earth season:
SP Toshimi Kato — Career year at 37, very replicable Krappa
SP Pacu Bulatovic — Unfortunately for the Men, Pacu looks cooked. Might be able to put in 1 last season of solid production, but fear he’s done.

Players to look out for:
RF Bobby Griffin — Think he’s going to put up better numbers than he did last season in limited playing time. Should take a starting spot in the outfield by the end of the season.

Prediction:
~65 wins, Miss playoffs

Kitchener

Bounceback Season:
DH Bryan Gamblin — IF he can stay healthy and can stay in a DH role I think he’ll put in a monster season.
CF Chris Reyes — Elite defense at CF with an average bat, but should be due for a solid, gold glove level season.

Return to earth season:
1B Chris Dixon — I will quit this league if he hits 5+ WAR again.
3B Juan Urena — Not going to hit 5 WAR, but still a good 3B.

Prediction:
~70 wins, Miss playoffs

Montreal

Bounceback season:
LF Tony Sandoval — Had an abysmal, career low season last year. Is 36, but doesn’t look cooked stats wise.
C Taduharu Hayashi — IS cooked, but I don’t think he’s barely replacement level cooked. Should hit at least a .200 this season as opposed to his .166 last year.
RP Drew Toepfer — Think he’ll put up a big year this season with a larger role in the bullpen.

Return to earth season:
I don’t really have an answer here to be honest.

Prediction:
~60 wins, Miss playoffs

Motor City

Bounceback season:
LF Kaichi Mizutani — Had a career low season last year at 29. Should be back to 6+ WAR production this season.
SS Steve Gilmour — Likewise had a career low season at 29. No way he goes negative WAR back to back years.

Return to earth season:
CL Tony Castillo — Had a career year at 33. Will be an elite arm still, just not closing in 4 WAR level good.
1B Garrett Wright — Think he’ll get phased out by Theo Berg by the end of the season.

Player to watch out for:
1B Theo Berg —Could take over as the starting 1B by the end of the season.

Prediction:
~75 Wins, Sneak in playoffs as the 4 seed

New Forest

Bounceback season:
1B Damian Lopez — Not a bounceback, but a breakthrough. Think he’ll put up a monster year in his sophomore season.
DH? Jon Mejia — Definitely think he’s better than a .187 avg and Bear better hope he is as well as he has him for 9 more seasons.
LF Bryan Beckstead — Barring injury, think he’ll return to 3–4+ WAR form.

Return to earth season:
SP Mitsuru Fujita — Think he’ll come down and be around a 3 WAR player this year.
2B Momosuke Sugihara — Will be last season’s Tim Anthony and have a solid year after a ridiculous year

Player to watch out for:
1B Damian Lopez — Read above

Prediction:
~80 Wins, 2nd place, will lose in Conference Finals

Oslo Vikings

Bounceback season:
1B Sukeichi Okuda — Put up a uhhh… End of the season last year after getting called up after the deadline. Should be MUCH better this season.
DH Justin Levy — After pacing the league in dingers until the All-Star game last season, fell off and had a career low year. Should be much better this season in the DH spot.

Return to earth season:
N/A

Player to watch out for:
3B Xander van Seters — Guys nuts.

Prediction:
~60 Wins, Miss playoffs

Peking Ducks

Bounceback season:
LF Luis Tapia — Think he’s better than his stats showed last year after a subpar season. Could hit on a 3 WAR pace this season.
SS Alonzo Gomez — Should be better than a sub 1 WAR player. Solid defensively with an above average bat at SS.
SP Kevin Rochelle — Had a career low year last year at 31. Should have a small bounceback and hover in the ~2 WAR range.
RP Danny Sanchez — Put up a 3.86 ERA, but had 15 K/9 last season. Should be primed for a great season.

Return to earth season:
SP Diego Salazar — Will probably have a small dip in production, probably drop to the~2.5 WAR area.
Rafael Arellano — Won’t hit at a historically great pace again, will probably drop down to a 5–6 WAR area.

Prediction:
~75 Wins, 4th seed, lose 1st round in playoffs

Redondo Beach

Bounceback season:
DH Zachery Shackleford — Might be washed as he’s 35, but I think he’s got enough left in the tank to bounceback and recover after a career low year.
C Grant Locke — Not the best player, but better than replacement level.
SP Cody Holland — Had a “disappointing” 6 WAR season at 28. King will take back his crown.
SP Jonathan Zamora — Last year was karma for putting up multiple 4 WAR seasons somehow, but he’s better than less than 1 WAR. Will probably be around 2–3 area.

Return to earth season:
N/A

Player to watch out for:
LF Alex Loza — Was going to put him in the bounceback season category, but he played 32 games last year, starting just 14 of those. Think he’ll hit at a nearly 3 WAR pace in a full year of playing.

Prediction:
95+ Wins, League Champion

Sunnyvale

Bounceback season:
SP Ayoub Rey — Put up a disappointing 1st year in the league, should be a solid 2 WAR guy this season at least.
1B Miguel Mota — Think he’s going to have a breakout year. Can see him hitting 40+ Dingers.

Return to earth season:
2B Mike Guthrie — I see him losing his starting job to youngster Izzy Toro by the end of the season

Player to watch out for:
SS Kirk Andrezejewski — Think he’ll take over as starting SS as the year progresses

Prediction:
~55 Wins, Miss playoffs

Suwon

Bounceback season:
2B Dave Landeros — Ruptured his achilles last season somehow after pacing for ~3 WAR.
3B Lauro Misiano — Had a career low year last season in all of his batting numbers, should be able to bounce back for a solid, not great season.
LF Jesus Maldonado — Had his worst full season in the majors last year. Hopefully can get back to elite production.
1B Gene Gutkowski — Turned it on in the last month and a half of the season last year, but started out abysmally. If he can keep his production from the last part of the season, should be in for a big year.

Return to earth season:
RF Gavin McGrath — Think he’s somewhere inbetween his last 2 seasons.
SS Manny Gomez — I don’t think he’ll put up a 3 WAR season with 100+ OPS+ again, but I can see him putting up 3+ WAR based on defense.
SP Kennie Roach — Think he’ll stick around 2 WAR, but won’t approach 3 like last season

Player to watch out for:
2B Chris Kasko — Might take over as starting DH/3B by the end of the year. solid bat coming off the bench.

Prediction:
~69 wins (nice), Miss playoffs

Washington

Bounceback season:
SS Danny McLaughlin — He’s in for a 4+ WAR season.

Return to earth season:
1B Francisco Sanchez — He’ll be an elite bat still, but I think he’ll be in the ~2–3 WAR area with 35+ dingers again.
2B Juan Ortiz — I think he’ll win a gold glove, but I don’t think he’ll put up 100+ OPS+ again.

Player to watch out for:
3B Robby Alvarado — He’ll be solid, but nothing special in his 1st full season.

Prediction:
~75 wins, 3rd place, Lose 1st round of playoffs

Wuhan

Bounceback season:
1B Justin Andrews — Think he’s still got stuff in the tank at 34 and will be closer to his career averages this year.
RF Dan Keough — Moving out of CF to save some mileage on him as he ages should help him bounce back in the batting department. Like Andrews, had a career low year last year.
CF Gary Prowse — Moving back to CF should help him out and there’s no way he hits only 11 dingers this year.

Return to earth season:
N/A

Player to watch out for:
SS Elroy Burgers — Should take over as starting SS by the end of the season, elite talent.

Prediction:
~60 wins, Miss playoffs

Final Standings Predictions

Virgin Division
Redondo
New Forest
Washington
Peking
Suwon
Isle of Man
Wuhan
Beijing
Chad Division
Boston
Cucklegar
Halifax
Motor City
Kitchener
Montreal
Oslo
Sunnyvale

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